India is expected to be a US $6 trillion economy — the third largest in the world — in the next 10 years, majorly helped by digitisation, says a report.
According to global brokerage Morgan Stanley, India’s digitisation drive would provide a boost of 50-75 basis points to GDP growth in the coming decade.
“We estimate that digitisation will provide a boost of 50-75 basis points to GDP growth and forecast that India will grow to US $6 trillion economy and achieve upper-middle income status by by 2026-27,” Morgan Stanley head India research and India equity strategist Ridham Desai told reporters here.
“We expect India’s real and nominal GDP growth to compound annually by 7.1% and 11.2% respectively over the coming decade,” he added.
Citing the report ‘India’s digital leap – The multi-trillion dollar opportunity’ released today, Desai said apart from some short term teething problems including implementation of GST, there is scope for visible shifts in economic activity starting in 2018 which would eventually lead India to be the top five equity markets in the world with a market capitalisation of US $6.1 trillion and the third-largest listed financial services sector around the globe with a market cap of US $1.8 trillion by 2027.
India’s consumer sectors is also likely to add about US $1.5 trillion over the next ten years.
“We project gross FDI inflows amounting to US $120 billion by FY’27, almost double the current 12-month trailing run rate of US $64 billion,” Desai said.
Accordingly, Desai also noted that stock markets are likely to remain robust as a stronger economic growth should drive stronger corporate earnings growth.
Desai also said the country is also likely to witness strong domestic participation in equities.
“We project equity saving of US$ 420 billion US$ 525 billion over the next ten years, versus the respective US $60 billion and US $120 billion that households and foreign portfolios invested over the previous ten years,” he said.
While the report exudes confidence that India’s growth story is to continue, it also identified certain risks.
These are with respect to political stability, privacy debate over Aadhaar, and implementation of GST, among others.
The report said that while the Supreme Court has made privacy a fundamental right in a recent judgement, private parties will likely continue to question whether Aadhaar violates privacy rights.
“Any adverse judgement in the courts could derail one of the main anchors of our framework,” it said.
Further, it noted that GST is expected to disrupt smaller businesses causing job losses and a general slowdown in economic growth, however, it is likely to lead to lower public debt to GDP subsequently.